Path Dependence: A Lesson for New Investors

Path Dependence: A Lesson for New Investors
Published: Nov 08, 2023

I was going through a few of my periodical notes and came wideness this thought from Nassim Taleb who explained the concept of “path dependence,” which is the dependence of outcomes on the path of previous outcomes, rather than simply on current conditions –

Ironing your shirts then putting them in the washing machine produces a variegated outcome from washing your shirts first, then ironing them. The reader can either trust me on this, or try the experiment with both sequences on the next Sunday afternoon. Now, seem that your wanted is virtually one million dollars and you are involved in speculation. Wield path dependence to the reasoning.Making a million dollars first, then losing it, is markedly variegated from losing a million dollars first then making it.

The first path (make-lose) leaves you intact; the second (lose) makes you bankrupt, insolvent, maimed, traumatized and increasingly often unable to stay in the game, thus unable to goody from the second part of the sequence. There is no make without the lose.

This note from Taleb reminded me of Warren Buffett’s “Rule No. 1 – Never LOSE money.”

6 Types of Real Estate Investment Opportunities

Consider a weak, fragile business. It is path-dependent. With stretched wastefulness sheet, large wanted requirement, and inadequate topics to suffer, a prolonged weakness in the economy can destroy it. It is then difficult for it to rise from that ruin. When you own such a business, you have to do a lot of praying to the economics gods. Such a merchantry starts from a “lose” and now it’s difficult, scrutinizingly impossible, for it to “make” when what it lost.

On the other hand, a robust and anti-fragile business, with wipe wastefulness sheet and low wanted requirement, which has built a topics to suffer over years, is not path dependent. It can survive a weak economy. Plane if the weakness persists, at worst, it may lose what it has once made, which is largest than starting with losing it all.

So, trammels out what you once own in your portfolio. Is it in the “make, then lose” category, or “lose, then lose everything” one?

Stick with the former. Discard the latter.

I have started work on a series of short videos to share my thoughts virtually investing, visualization making, learning, and just the practice of trying to live a good life. Have published the pursuit four videos so far, which you can watch.

  • Life’s True Riches
  • A Practical Formula of Contentment and Happiness in Life
  • The Golden Rule
  • The Power of Process

This initiative has a dual purpose. One, to share my key lessons virtually the supra ideas with you in byte-size format, and two, to help me get over my uneasiness and shyness to speak in front of a camera (and you can see from these videos how bad I am at these!). I hope, over time, I am worldly-wise to unhook on both of these fronts. 

As parents, we often ask, then ask again, and ask then our kids to do something we desire they do. And if we are lucky, our kids cooperate without the fourth or fifth request or without a loud but otherwise harmless scolding.

We mutter that our kids never listen to us and ask other parents how they get their kids to behave, eat healthy food, and go to sleep on time. If that’s not all, we consult the Internet and several books on bringing up well-cultured and disciplined children. Then, plane as we wield all those techniques, our kids just don’t listen.

But, surrounded all this, there’s something we often goof to notice with our kids. Plane when they are not listening to us, they are rented observing us.

I have often noticed this with my kids. They would often not listen to what I have to tell them. But they would unchangingly be observing my actions. And that keeps me on my toes, simply considering my kids are ‘watching’ me.

I found this thought reiterated in this wonderful typesetting I am reading for, maybe, the fifth time – Peter Bevelin’s All I Want to Know is Where I’m Going to Die So I’ll Never Go There. Here is an excerpt from that typesetting where Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, in conversation with a seeker of wisdom, share with him the weightier method of training children…

If you haven’t picked up this book, I suggest you do. It will be one of the weightier investments in seeking wisdom you would overly make.

Ryan Holiday writes well-nigh how Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius conquered stress, and the rest of us can too –

By taking the time to periodical and write, he was chipping yonder at his anxiety, just as we all can – in the morning, at night, on our lunch break. Whenever.

To wifely his anxiety, Marcus was moreover constantly trying to get perspective. Sometimes he zoomed way out. He meditated on his insignificance. “The infinity of past and future gapes surpassing us,” he wrote, “a chasm whose depths we cannot see. So it would take an idiot to finger self-importance or distress.”

Other times, he zoomed way in, telling himself to take things step by step, moment by moment. No one can stop you from that, he said. Concentrate like a Roman, he said, on what’s in front of you like it’s the last thing you’re doing in your life.

Don’t worry well-nigh what’s happened in the past or what might happen in the future.

This idea of stuff present is key to overcoming our stress.

We are often yellow-eyed considering of what we fear will happen next, or without what happens next. We worry well-nigh worst specimen scenarios. We dread potential obstacles. But Marcus, from Epictetus, knew that “Man is not worried by real problems so much as by his imagined anxieties well-nigh real problems.” That’s well-nigh it from me for today.